As Bihar counts votes for its Assembly election on November 14, 2025, the state watches closely to see if the National Democratic Alliance can turn early optimism into a working majority. The contest has unusual weight because the BJP and JD(U) fought an equal number of seats, putting Nitish Kumar's leadership and internal balance under scrutiny. The NDA leans on three strengths: Nitish Kumar's political experience, welfare schemes aimed at women through self-help groups, and a wider caste net that includes Chirag Paswan's LJP (Ram Vilas) and Upendra Kushwaha's RLM. Meanwhile, the Mahagathbandhan led by Tejashwi Yadav seeks to expand beyond its Muslim–Yadav base by bringing in partners like VIP and IIP to mobilise Extremely Backward Classes and riverine voters. Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj also enters the race, and even a small vote share could shift tight margins. Today's results will decide Bihar's political direction.
Key Factors Shaping Bihar's Close Contest
The NDA relies on Nitish Kumar's established credibility, though this election also tests his position within the alliance. The Mukhyamantri Mahila Rojgar Yojana, delivered through Jeevika self-help networks, aims to secure women's votes once again. Caste calculations matter deeply: Chirag Paswan's LJP (Ram Vilas) and Upendra Kushwaha's RLM widen the NDA umbrella, and Chirag's performance is watched after his push for more seats. On the other side, Tejashwi Yadav seeks to broaden the Mahagathbandhan beyond its core by mobilising Extremely Backward Classes and riverine communities through partners like VIP and IIP. Congress hopes to stay relevant after Rahul Gandhi's Yatra. Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj may not win many seats but could split votes and influence tight races across multiple constituencies.
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