As the second phase of Bihar Assembly elections concluded on Tuesday evening, attention turned to exit polls. Historical data from 2015 and 2020 reveals mixed accuracy. In 2020, exit polls incorrectly forecast a narrow Mahagathbandhan victory, while the NDA actually secured 125 seats against Mahagathbandhan's 110 seats. An average of 11 exit polls underestimated the NDA by 17 seats and overestimated the Mahagathbandhan by 15 seats. In 2015, pollsters drastically misjudged the RJD-JD(U)-Congress alliance's landslide, predicting only 123 seats when they actually won 178 seats. The NDA secured just 58 seats, far below the predicted 114. These discrepancies highlight the challenges in accurately forecasting electoral outcomes in Bihar, where alliances and voter behaviour often defy predictions.
Past Exit Poll Accuracy in Bihar Elections
Exit polls in Bihar have shown varying degrees of accuracy. In 2020, an average of 11 exit polls predicted 125 seats for the Mahagathbandhan, just above the 122-seat majority mark in the 243-seat Assembly. However, the NDA narrowly won with 125 seats, while Mahagathbandhan secured 110 seats. Patriotic Voter, P-Marq, and ABP News-CVoter came closest in predicting an NDA majority. News 18-Today's Chanakya was furthest off, projecting 180 seats for Mahagathbandhan and only 55 for NDA. In 2015, six exit polls predicted a narrow Mahagathbandhan win with 123 seats. Instead, the RJD-JD(U)-Congress alliance won 178 seats, while NDA managed just 58 seats. CNN IBN-Axis poll came closest with 176 seats for Mahagathbandhan.
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