Bihar's Chief Minister Nitish Kumar continues to enjoy strong support across the state despite completing nearly 20 years in power since 2005. The Bharatiya Janata Party, which earlier hesitated to project the Janata Dal (United) leader as the National Democratic Alliance's chief ministerial candidate, now backs him wholeheartedly after witnessing his popularity on the ground. The alliance partners are contesting an equal number of seats this time, with both the BJP and JD(U) fielding candidates in 101 constituencies each, unlike the 2020 arrangement. Voters dismiss concerns about the 74-year-old leader's health and frequent alliance changes, viewing him as honest and capable. Women form the core of his support base, crediting him for safety, education schemes, job reservations, and prohibition policies. The BJP struggles with a leadership gap in Bihar and faces corruption allegations against its top state leaders. Meanwhile, the opposition Rashtriya Janata Dal, led by Tejashwi Yadav, attempts to shift focus toward unemployment and development but faces challenges in convincing voters about offering a genuine alternative. Internal tensions within the opposition alliance and memories of alleged lawlessness during earlier RJD governments continue to influence voter sentiment. Nitish Kumar's governance record, infrastructure development, and corruption-free image remain decisive factors as Bihar heads into this crucial election.

Strong Support Despite Two Decades in Power
Nitish Kumar has served as Bihar's Chief Minister since 2005, barring a brief period when Jitan Ram Majhi held the post. Voters across Patna, Champaran, and Muzaffarpur express trust in his capabilities, dismissing health concerns as exaggerated media narratives. Ram Babu Jha, a farmer from Muzaffarpur, praises Nitish for being honest and facing no corruption allegations. He credits the leader for tackling criminals, building roads, and uplifting Bihar's people. Another voter, Raghvendra Kumar Jha from Patna, explains that Nitish's frequent alliance changes are justified because he leaves partners only when they become corrupt. People view him as Bihar's guardian who can do no wrong. Even BJP supporters acknowledge that no other leader matches Nitish's contribution to the state. His active participation in rallies and roadshows during the campaign further reassures voters about his fitness. The overwhelming ground support surprised the BJP, which now expects the JD(U) to perform much better than its 43 seats in 2020 compared to BJP's 74.
Women's Welfare Policies Strengthen Support Base
Women constitute the bedrock of Nitish Kumar's support, crediting him for transformative policies. Abhilasha Devi, a mother of four in Motihari, started selling fruits using Rs 10,000 received under the Mukhyamantri Mahila Rozgar Yojana announced before elections. She says Nitish made it possible for women to step out safely after sunset, contrasting the current situation with alleged crime during earlier RJD governments. Across villages, women appreciate initiatives like the Mukhyamantri Balika Cycle Yojana introduced in 2006, providing free bicycles to schoolgirls, 50% reservation in panchayats and urban local bodies, and 35% quota in government jobs. Amit Kumar Bakshi from the Asian Development Research Institute says Nitish changed women's lives by enabling school access and employment priority. He highlights that prohibition has significantly reduced domestic violence. Though opposition parties criticize fitful prohibition implementation and spurious liquor incidents, Bakshi maintains that overall, prohibition has benefited women. This policy remains decisive for married women despite some voters expressing dissatisfaction.
BJP's Leadership Challenge and Opposition Struggles
The BJP has failed to develop strong independent leadership in Bihar despite wanting to grow as an independent force. Its three top state leaders—Deputy Chief Minister Samrat Choudhary, state president Dilip Jaiswal, and minister Mangal Pandey—face corruption allegations from Prashant Kishor, damaging their credibility. A senior BJP leader admits the party has only five major crowd pullers: Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Amit Shah, Yogi Adityanath, Chirag Paswan from LJP (Ram Vilas), and Nitish Kumar himself. The RJD attempts to make unemployment central to the campaign, with leaders highlighting Tejashwi Yadav's governance record as Deputy Chief Minister for 17 months, claiming he provided 5 lakh jobs and initiated processes for 3.5 lakh more. However, the opposition struggles to convince voters it offers genuine change. Rumors of friction within the Mahagathbandhan persist, with Tejashwi and Rahul Gandhi campaigning separately despite their joint yatra. Additionally, Tejashwi's elder brother Tej Pratap Yadav floated a separate party contesting 22 seats, further complicating the opposition's position.
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