Bihar's assembly election reveals a tale of two realities. While Patna displays visible infrastructure improvements under the Nitish Kumar-led National Democratic Alliance government, areas beyond the capital tell a different story. The disconnect becomes apparent once you travel outside Patna, where development appears uneven and infrastructure challenges persist. Even Muzaffarpur, designated a Smart City and Bihar's second-most urbanised centre after Patna, continues struggling with traffic congestion and waterlogging. Residents of Sitamarhi point to the incomplete Mehsaul overbridge, a project that began nearly two decades ago. Beyond the state capital, multiple factors appear to favour the Opposition: patchy implementation of government schemes, rising prices, complaints about bureaucratic dominance, corruption concerns, and inadequate job creation forcing young people to migrate elsewhere. The controversial prohibition policy has sparked strong backlash, particularly among lower-caste men, who say it has not stopped alcohol consumption but made it costlier while empowering police to harass vulnerable users. Despite these visible grievances against a 20-year incumbent government, the election outcome may hinge on whether Rashtriya Janata Dal's Tejashwi Yadav can expand his appeal beyond traditional caste boundaries. His core support among Yadavs and Muslims remains largely intact, but winning requires convincing non-Yadav Other Backward Classes, Scheduled Castes, and Extremely Backward Classes voters to support him. Meanwhile, political strategist Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj party, though visible, is not considered a serious electoral contender. The National Democratic Alliance banks on multiple advantages: Prime Minister Narendra Modi's appeal, Bharatiya Janata Party's Hindutva agenda, Nitish Kumar's law-and-order record, women-centric welfare schemes, and the recent Rs 10,000 cash transfer to women under the Mahila Rojgar Yojana. For Tejashwi's Mahagathbandhan coalition to succeed, it must overcome lingering fears about the Lalu Prasad era while harnessing widespread anti-incumbency sentiment across different caste groups.
Infrastructure Gap Beyond State Capital
Stepping outside Patna reveals sharp contrasts in Bihar's development story. While the capital city showcases new bridges and four-lane highways representing smoother connectivity, rural-urban distinctions blur worryingly elsewhere. Long-distance travel has improved significantly, but away from Patna, narrow roads remain prone to traffic congestion and waterlogging. Muzaffarpur, Bihar's second most urbanised centre and a designated Smart City, still battles ineffective management of traffic jams and water accumulation. In Sitamarhi, angry residents highlight the Mehsaul overbridge, described as the town's lifeline, where construction began almost two decades ago but remains incomplete. This unfinished project symbolises the government's fitful approach to infrastructure development. The visible disparity creates a battleground seemingly more hospitable to Opposition forces. Multiple grievances fuel discontent: uneven development patterns, inconsistent delivery of government schemes, rising prices, complaints about bureaucratic dominance referred to as rule of the bureaucrat, and increased corruption. Even the latest Mahila Rojgar Yojana, featuring election-eve transfers of Rs 10,000 to women through the Jeevika network of self-help groups, faces allegations of bribe-taking. The missing factories and abysmal lack of employment opportunities force Bihar's youth to travel far from home seeking livelihoods, a concern raised consistently across caste and class divisions.
Prohibition Policy Triggers Strong Backlash
The prohibition policy has generated powerful opposition, particularly among men from lower classes and castes. Critics argue the ban has clearly failed to end liquor consumption, instead making alcohol more expensive while boosting an array of more harmful and dangerous intoxicants. The policy has handed draconian powers to police, who are widely perceived as working hand-in-glove with the liquor mafia while harassing and extorting vulnerable users. In Nawada village in Muzaffarpur district, men complain about police excesses carried out under cover of enforcing prohibition, with bribes of Rs 50,000 and more demanded from invariably poor victims. Harishchander Sahni notes that the poor go to jail while the liquor mafia fattens outside. In Kharauna Dih village, Alarvinder Sahani was among many imprisoned because of the alcohol ban. Despite his opposition to the policy, his wife received Rs 10,000 under the Mahila Rojgar Yojana and plans to vote for Nitish Kumar. Some voters in Nawada indicate they will support Nitish despite prohibition because of Modi's appeal. The prohibition issue represents a clear point of anti-incumbency sentiment, though it competes with other considerations including welfare schemes and concerns about alternative leadership. The policy has become a common complaint across different communities, though its electoral impact varies depending on other factors influencing voter choices.
Tejashwi's Challenge: Breaking Caste Boundaries
Tejashwi Yadav faces the crucial electoral challenge of whether he can expand beyond being seen as circumscribed by caste identity. Caste remains a vivid lived reality in Bihar, with all parties invoking it not only to address inequalities but more importantly as a convenient organising principle and fixed mobilisational category. This approach has helped political players evade the hard labour of constructing fluid communities that demand accountability. While Tejashwi is seen as defined by caste calculations, the Nitish-Modi led National Democratic Alliance is not perceived as similarly limited, even though it plays the caste game equally. The real leap of faith required in this election will be from non-Yadav and non-Muslim voters for Tejashwi. The Rashtriya Janata Dal's core support base remains largely unshaken, particularly among Yadavs more than among Muslims. In Himmatpur village of Tejashwi's Raghopur constituency, voters like Ajay Rai confirm that Tejashwi gets their vote whether he wins or loses, despite complaints about increasing corruption and housing schemes that have not reached them. Tejashwi is projected as a young, forward-looking leader discussing employment, but clearly draws heavily on political capital built by his father. As Kapil Dev Rai, a farmer in Rustampur village, simply states: Lalu gave Yadavs a say in governance.
Muslim Voters Express Bitterness Despite Support
Among Muslim voters, consolidation behind the Rashtriya Janata Dal is tinged with bitterness about representation and power-sharing. In Sumera chowk, Muzaffarpur, Javed Alam, who runs a motorcycle spare parts business, points out that with approximately 18 percent population in Bihar, Muslims received only 18 tickets from the Rashtriya Janata Dal, while Yadavs with smaller population share got more than 50. Mukesh Sahani's Vikassheel Insaan Party received 15 seats and the promise of deputy chief ministership despite representing only about 2 percent of the population. There is discussion about how the party has used the Muslim vote while denying the community participation in representation and power-sharing. However, the Waqf law has emerged as a decisive factor. In the Muslim locality of Mehsaul in Sitamarhi town, Abdul Rahman, an autorickshaw driver who previously voted for Nitish, says the Narendra Modi government is interfering in property today and will interfere in others' tomorrow. Phulbabu, a first-time voter, questions why mosques are touched, saying this government has done development but Muslims are not getting their rights. Mohammad Bikau, a driver who also earlier supported Nitish, expresses heartbreak, describing voting for the Rashtriya Janata Dal as optionlessness because Muslims lack a leader of their own. He states they are angrier with the Waqf law than with the Rashtriya Janata Dal.
Non-Yadav Groups Hold Key to Election Outcome
The election outcome most likely depends on whether the Rashtriya Janata Dal-led Mahagathbandhan can rally anti-incumbency sentiment among other backward groups including non-Yadav Other Backward Classes, Scheduled Castes, and Extremely Backward Classes, especially Mallahs whose Vikassheel Insaan Party received prominence in the Opposition alliance. Among forward castes, the Bharatiya Janata Party enjoys support as staunch as the Rashtriya Janata Dal does among Yadavs and Muslims. However, among non-Yadav backward groups, a still-tangible apprehension persists about the party being for Yadavs exclusively. The legacy of the Lalu years evokes predominantly negative associations, creating fears of arbitrariness, favouritism, and impunity for one community, despite Tejashwi's claims of becoming an all-inclusive, not just Muslim-Yadav party. In the Sahu mohalla in Sitamarhi town, Pankaj Shah expresses concern that if Yadavs come to power, they will swagger around in large vehicles again. Lallan Kumar says Bihar needs employment not free rations, questioning the utility of distributing money instead of building universities and hospitals, but adds they do not want to return to old days of lawlessness. Ram Balak Shah notes that even if he votes for the Rashtriya Janata Dal, they will not believe him, referring to the perception that non-Yadav backward groups are not natural supporters. Shiv Nath Shah represents the risk-averse voter unwilling to jeopardise current benefits for uncertain alternatives.
Source: Link