Bihar recorded its highest-ever voter turnout of 66.91% in the recent Assembly elections, marking an increase of 9.62 percentage points over the 57.29% recorded in 2020. Both the ruling NDA and Opposition Mahagathbandhan claim this surge favors them. Results were declared on Friday. Historically, higher turnout in Bihar has often signaled government change, though smaller parties can influence outcomes unpredictably. Given the narrow margins of the 2020 elections, this substantial increase is expected to be decisive. Over Bihar's 17 Assembly elections since 1951, five instances saw higher turnout coincide with power shifts. Among the 243 seats, 132 recorded turnout increases above 10%, with 20 seats witnessing increases exceeding 15%. In 2020, the NDA had won 13 of these 20 high-surge seats, while the Mahagathbandhan secured 6, suggesting these constituencies could determine the final outcome.
Historical Pattern: Turnout Surges and Power Shifts
Bihar has experienced five government changes linked to rising voter participation. In 1967, the Jan Kranti Dal defeated Congress after turnout rose 7.04 percentage points to 51.51%. Congress returned in 1969 with a marginal 1.28-point increase. The 1980 election brought Congress back with a 6.77-point surge to 57.28%. In 1990, turnout crossed 60% for the first time, reaching 62.04%, bringing Lalu Prasad's Janata Dal to power. After February 2005 saw a massive turnout drop, fresh polls in October led to Nitish Kumar's first term as Chief Minister. Since then, turnout has steadily climbed: 52.73% in 2010, 56.91% in 2015, and 57.29% in 2020, making the current 66.91% historically significant.
Key Constituencies with Highest Turnout Gains
Twenty constituencies recorded absolute turnout increases exceeding 15% compared to 2020. Belsand led with 17.86%, followed by Mohiuddinnagar at 17.84% and Jhajha at 17.81%. Of these 20 seats, the JD(U) had won 7 in 2020, BJP 5, RJD 5, Congress 1, HAM(S) 1, and an Independent 1. In 2020, only eight seats saw turnout rises above 5 percentage points, with six witnessing changed winners. The 2015 elections had just three seats—Katoria, Dhaka, Sitamarhi—with over 10-point increases, and all three elected new representatives. This pattern suggests that constituencies with significant turnout jumps often experience electoral shifts, potentially reshaping Bihar's political landscape.
Source: Link