As Bihar completed its second phase of Assembly elections on Tuesday evening, attention turned to exit polls. A review of past elections reveals mixed accuracy in predictions. In 2020, most exit polls incorrectly forecast a narrow Mahagathbandhan victory, while the NDA ultimately secured a slim majority. The average of 11 polls underestimated the NDA by 17 seats and overestimated the Mahagathbandhan by 15 seats. In 2015, pollsters significantly miscalculated the scale of the Mahagathbandhan's success when archrivals RJD and JD(U) united. Six exit polls on average predicted only a narrow win, but the alliance swept to a commanding 178 seats against the NDA's 58. The 2015 polls underestimated the Mahagathbandhan by 55 seats and overestimated the NDA by 56 seats. These historical patterns highlight the challenges pollsters face in accurately gauging Bihar's complex electoral landscape.
Past Exit Poll Performance in Bihar Elections
In the 2020 Bihar elections, an average of 11 exit polls predicted the Mahagathbandhan would win 125 seats, narrowly crossing the 122-seat majority in the 243-seat Assembly, while forecasting 108 seats for the NDA. The actual result flipped this projection, with the NDA winning 125 seats against the Mahagathbandhan's 110. Patriotic Voter, P-Marq, and ABP News-CVoter came closest by projecting an NDA majority. News 18-Today's Chanakya was furthest off, predicting 180 seats for the Mahagathbandhan and only 55 for the NDA. In 2015, when RJD and JD(U) formed an alliance with Congress, six exit polls predicted just 123 seats for the Mahagathbandhan. However, they won 178 seats decisively, while the NDA secured only 58 seats. CNN IBN-Axis came closest with a projection of 176 seats for the winning alliance.
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